On June 17, 2025, the European Commission proposed a legally binding ban on all Russian gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports by the end of 2027, a decisive step to sever the EU’s decades-long energy ties with Russia, triggered by Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Designed to bypass opposition from Hungary and Slovakia, this ambitious plan leverages EU trade and energy law to ensure a reinforced majority vote, avoiding vetoes. With a phased timeline, alternative supply strategies, and legal safeguards, the EU aims to achieve energy independence while navigating economic and legal challenges. Here’s a deep dive into the plan, its implications, and the path forward!
Phased Implementation Timeline
- January 1, 2026: Ban on new Russian pipeline gas and LNG contracts signed in 2025.
- June 17, 2026: Prohibition on short-term contracts (under one year) signed before June 17, 2025.
- January 1, 2028: Complete ban on existing long-term contracts, ending all Russian gas imports.
The EU’s strategy is methodical, targeting new contracts first (2026), followed by short-term deals (mid-2026), and culminating in the termination of long-term contracts by 2028. This gradual approach gives member states, particularly landlocked Hungary and Slovakia, time to transition. In 2024, Russia supplied 19% of EU gas (down from 45% pre-2022) via the TurkStream pipeline and LNG shipments, making this phase-out critical to the EU’s REPowerEU goals.
Legal Framework: Bypassing Vetoes
- Trade and Energy Law: Allows approval via reinforced majority, not unanimity.
- Force Majeure Clause: Enables companies to exit contracts without penalties.
- Transparency Measures: Importers must disclose contract details to EU and national authorities.
To counter opposition from Hungary and Slovakia, the Commission crafted the ban under EU trade and energy law, requiring only a qualified majority (not unanimous consent) from the European Parliament and member states. This sidesteps potential vetoes, as sanctions (requiring unanimity) have been blocked by these nations. The force majeure clause, cited by EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen, allows companies to exit contracts due to “unforeseeable events,” reducing legal risks. Importers must share contract details with customs authorities and the EU’s energy regulator ACER to ensure compliance.
Impact on Hungary and Slovakia
- Extended Deadline: Until January 1, 2028, to phase out pipeline gas imports.
- Economic Concerns: Both nations warn of higher energy costs, with Hungary’s Péter Szijjártó claiming prices could quadruple.
- Current Reliance: Receive gas via TurkStream; Hungary and Slovakia import over 80% of their oil from Russia.
Hungary and Slovakia, reliant on Russian gas via the TurkStream pipeline and oil through the Druzhba pipeline, fiercely oppose the ban, citing economic suicide and competitiveness risks. Slovakia’s PM Robert Fico and Hungary’s Péter Szijjártó argue that alternatives like US or Norwegian LNG via Croatian terminals could cost up to four times more. Despite their resistance, the Commission’s majority-based legal approach limits their ability to block the plan. Both countries have until 2028 to comply, with mandates to draft national plans for oil phase-outs by 2027.
Alternatives to Russian Gas
- LNG Capacity: EU’s 250 billion cubic meters (bcm) annual LNG import capacity, underutilized in 2024 (used <50%).
- US LNG Imports: Pushed by US leadership, with new supply projects online by 2027 from the US, Qatar, Canada, and Africa.
- Renewables and Efficiency: Investments in clean energy and Romanian gas fields (8 bcm boost by 2027).
The EU is poised to replace Russian gas (32 bcm pipeline, 20 bcm LNG in 2024) with US LNG, Qatari supplies, and domestic renewable energy. Global LNG capacity is set to grow by 160 bcm by 2027, with North American capacity doubling. Countries like Spain, Belgium, France, and the Netherlands—major Russian LNG importers—support the ban and are ready to diversify. The Commission predicts limited price impacts due to falling EU gas demand (down 50 bcm by 2027) and new supply options. Austria, previously reliant on Russian gas via Ukraine, now sources from Germany and Italy.
Challenges and Risks
- Legal Risks: Companies like TotalEnergies and Naturgy, with contracts until the 2030s, face arbitration risks if exiting early.
- Price Concerns: Alternatives may cost more; Russian pipeline gas was 13–15% cheaper in 2024.
- Political Pushback: Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria advocate resuming Russian imports if the Ukraine war ends.
Despite legal safeguards, companies face potential lawsuits from Russian suppliers like Gazprom and Novatek, especially under take-or-pay contracts. France, the EU’s top Russian LNG buyer (up 81% in 2024, €2.68 billion), seeks stronger economic impact assessments, as does Belgium, tied to contracts until 2035. Austria’s energy ministry suggests revisiting the ban if peace is achieved in Ukraine, a stance criticized by Green MEP Lena Schilling as shortsighted. The EU spent €23 billion on Russian fossil fuels in 2024, exceeding aid to Ukraine, underscoring the financial stakes.
Broader Energy Context
- Oil Phase-Out: Hungary and Slovakia must end Russian oil imports by 2027, despite current exemptions.
- Nuclear Fuel: Proposals to curb Russian uranium imports via trade measures (e.g., tariffs).
- Shadow Fleet: Plans to restrict Russia’s covert oil tankers through pre-authorized ship boardings.
The ban extends beyond gas, targeting Russian oil (3% of EU imports in 2024) and nuclear fuel (20% of uranium, 38% of enrichment capacity). Five countries—Finland, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic—rely on Russian-built reactors. The Commission aims to make Russian uranium “economically unviable” through tariffs and limit the shadow fleet of oil tankers. These measures align with the REPowerEU strategy to boost renewables, electrification, and energy efficiency, reducing reliance on volatile fossil fuels.
Why This Matters for the EU
- Energy Security: Ends Russia’s ability to “weaponize energy,” as seen in 2006, 2009, 2014, and 2021 supply cuts.
- Geopolitical Stance: Signals solidarity with Ukraine, reducing Moscow’s €23 billion energy revenue.
- Economic Resilience: Diversification protects against price shocks, supporting EU’s €3.2 trillion GDP in 2025.
The ban is a cornerstone of the EU’s energy security and geopolitical strategy, countering Russia’s history of using energy as leverage. By ending imports that funded Moscow’s war chest, the EU strengthens its support for Ukraine while fostering a green transition. The plan’s success hinges on securing alternative supplies and managing costs, critical as EU gas inventories deplete post-2022 energy crisis.
How to Prepare and Stay Informed
- Businesses: Review Russian gas contracts and prepare for force majeure exits; disclose terms to ACER.
- Governments: Draft national plans for oil and gas phase-outs by 2027, leveraging EU-funded grid upgrades.
- Stay Updated: Monitor commission.europa.eu and euractiv.com for legislative progress and impact assessments.
Companies like TotalEnergies and Naturgy should assess long-term contracts (some until 2041) and engage with EU authorities. Member states, especially Hungary and Slovakia, can tap EU-funded infrastructure (e.g., Croatian LNG terminals) to diversify. Follow the Commission’s updates for the June 2026 legal package and upcoming nuclear fuel proposals.
Join the EU’s Energy Revolution
The EU’s 2027 Russian gas ban is a bold step toward energy independence, breaking Moscow’s grip on Europe’s energy markets. With a clear timeline, legal ingenuity, and alternative supplies from the US and Qatar, the EU is poised to succeed—despite pushback from Hungary and Slovakia. Businesses, governments, and citizens can rally behind this vision by embracing renewables and diversification. Visit commission.europa.eu to track this transformative journey and help shape a secure, sustainable EU energy future!
